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January 2005

The Future of Books

Continued from page 2

By Jason Epstein

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Getting beyond Gutenberg
What I did not know in 1999 was that the book machine I envisioned already existed. The next year, one of my lectures appeared in the New York Review of Books, where it was read by my friend Michael Smolens, an entrepreneur also interested in print-on-demand technology. He told me that such a machine was even at that moment making books in a small workshop in Missouri. Its inventor, Jeff Marsh, would welcome a visit from us. (Disclosure: Smolens, I, and a few others are now in business together: our company hopes to build a print-on-demand machine for less than $100,000.)

At Marsh's workshop we watched a machine, about two-and-a-half meters long and half as high, receive a digital file, adjust itself to the dimensions of the desired book, and transmit the file to a duplex printer. The printed pages were then gathered and bound within a cover produced by a separate, four-color printer. The entire automatic process took about two minutes. The bound, 256-page book was next conveyed to a trimmer and finished, all without an operator.

It was a transcendent moment.

In the electronic future, everything ever published will be recoverable by searching on Google or sites like it (see "What's Next for Google?"). Enthusiasts for any activity under the sun, booksellers, publishers, and eventually authors themselves will post digital files of texts on their sites. At their computers, readers will select books from an infinite library of many languages and transmit them to the nearest book machines, where they will collect the printed books at their convenience.

A post-Gutenberg system could be assembled now from existing technologies. But while the technologies exist, the commercial infrastructure to support them does not. Music publishers sell directly over the Internet to consumers who play tunes on devices like the iPod. But before book publishers can sell titles directly to readers, they will need to build thousands of book machines.

Unfortunately, the new system cannot be implemented without a viable market: none exists at the moment. One possible solution lies in the unprecedented ability of these new technologies to reach previously inaccessible markets: for example, the 47 million Americans for whom English is a second language but who have no convenient way to buy books.

Gutenberg was a Catholic entrepreneur who sold religious trinkets and printed indulgences before creating his famous Bible. He thought he could cure the schisms of the 15th century by distributing a uniform missal to all the churches of Europe. Instead, he helped create the Protestant Reformation.

The impact of today's more powerful technologies can scarcely be imagined. What seems to me certain is that these technologies will soon overwhelm the obsolescent Gutenberg system and confront us once again with unprecedented risks and opportunities.

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January 2005

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Comments

  • Bad Idea!
    Guest (Jason Bourne) on 01/08/2006 at 6:28 PM
    Posts:
    1
    Paper is going out and fast.  It would not be cost efficent to download a text file and then print it all out.  The cost to the consumer for paper and ink would be outragous.  It would be so much easier to simply download it and read it from there off of a tablet PC or PDA device.  There is no important reason to print off the book when you can store it on your hard drive and read it using e-book software.  Paper Sucks!
    Rate this comment: 12345
    • Mr. Bourne's opinion
      Guest (Dan LeMaire-Bauch) on 05/09/2006 at 12:00 AM
      Posts:
      1
      The cost of paper and ink is really not "outragous" (sic) unless you're talking about "rag paper".  For commercial acid-free paper, it's quite tolerable in the opinion of this reader.
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Good Idea!
      stevedefeo on 10/28/2006 at 8:29 AM
      Posts:
      1
      With all due respect, it appears that Mr. Bourne is barking up the wrong tree.  The primary benefit provided by on-demand-printing is not simply the minimization of book costs to the end-user, but rather the tremendous advantage afforded to the reader by this technology's ability to locally produce what is needed, when it is needed.  For those of us fortunate enough to reside in or near large metropolitan centers with their abundant sources of reading material, this may not be particularly interesting.  However, this is certainly not the case for the vast majority of the world's population.  It is in this regard that the benefits of on-demand-printing are most needed and would be most appreciated.
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Bad Idea!
      morris.ward on 12/09/2006 at 7:32 PM
      Posts:
      1
      A book printed on acid-free paper will last 100 years and more.  No one in this discussion of
      using files of digitized books ever mentions or questions how those digital files will be digitally preserved, error-free, retrievable, interpretable, and repurposeable, for 100 years or more.
      Rate this comment: 12345
      • Re: Bad Idea!
        sebakunstpaul on 10/23/2007 at 2:08 PM
        Posts:
        3
        Digital files will last because the backward-compatibility that IT industry have to keep. I give only pdf file type as example, then databases will spread, so there will be many backups... probably users will be able to keep own file collection... and so on.
        Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Bad Idea!
      Colin Walsh on 08/28/2007 at 10:27 AM
      Posts:
      1
      I don't think that the comment 'paper sucks!' adds any value to an argument against paper-based information.  Pulp is a crop, mostly wood, that is grown for just that - paper. It is planted and harvested like any other crop. Take away the pulp forests and not only will the environment be damaged, but housing estates will rapidly appear on the cleared land.  It's silly to argue media against media.  It's a question not only of what works but what is preferred.  Of course, IT advances means that e-readers are now more flexible.  Everybody knows that.  It still doesn't mean that the paper-based book is redundant and certainly, Print On Demand means fewer numbers being printed on the basis of guesswork.
      Rate this comment: 12345
    • Re: Bad Idea!
      sebakunstpaul on 10/23/2007 at 2:17 PM
      Posts:
      3
      Digital files have their advantages (portability, environmental benefit, zoom... just thinking about few...), but finally a printed book is a printed book... doesn't require any power supply, will not crash, will not be corrupted... will not deceive you.
      Rate this comment: 12345
  • bks on demand
    pstream on 12/29/2006 at 3:35 PM
    Posts:
    1
    I co-owned a bookstore in Boulder during the 1970's, with thousands of titles. It was really like a current library, with overstuffed chairs, oriental rugs, plants and no food. Very hip and now.
    In the '80-2000 years I worked for the state government geological program in the infomation/publishing section.
    I remember that a print on demand was available, but I was not able to convience anyone that it was the publishing future. No more warehouse of slow moving inventory. Geology being popular, but by no means profitable.
    I was able to scan/digitize their sizable map collection, (almost 2 years non-stop to complete),
    that is now available in full color as print on demand. I just could not convience them that book publishing had to change.
    I am glad to hear that someone is moving forward with this, and I hope to be able to have access to the publishing industry of the future.
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • a new website that challenges
    steve81 on 07/17/2007 at 6:43 PM
    Posts:
    1
    A website was launched this week that challenges the traditional publishing model. It differs from others in that it is free, totally interactive between readers, authors, editors and publishers. I'd like to invite your members to view the site and provide comments, criticisms and suggestions.The site is www.novelmaker.com  I would especially like Mr Epstein's opinion.  Steve Weinstein Sc.D.
    Rate this comment: 12345
  • Perspectives...
    sebakunstpaul on 10/23/2007 at 2:37 PM
    Posts:
    3
    Print on Demand for Books is most advantageous because of many reasons.

    First readers will not have to wait for new editions to be published, this particularly will be a benefit for readers to reach good titles, which are not so often published for example. There are many titles with not so broad audience, what I mean culture isn't mainstream yet...

    Then authors will have an easy way to publish their works to promote and sell on demand, being affordable to publish few... bringing "user generated content" into the traditional printed media.

    Also I would like to remind about corporate market, that uses print on demand at a large scale... reports, studies, etc. I think now about smaller businesses that could benefit from more accessibility to printing services, as cost, time, professional look of documentation, etc.

    Print on Demand is the future of printing, if not the only future...
    Rate this comment: 12345
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